How Schools Can Keep At-Risk Students on Track: Addressing the High School Graduation Decline

Posted by Des Sinkevich on March 20, 2025

While 2025 is expected to see the highest number of high school graduates to date, it also marks the start of a long-predicted and steady decline in graduation rates with some states seeing as high as a 20% decrease in graduation rates over the next decade. At-risk students – those who face economic hardship, have health concerns, or just don’t have access to the same tools needed to succeed – are the most vulnerable to dropping out. Now, more than ever, it’s essential that schools implement flexible, accessible solutions to accommodate students’ needs – and maintain steady graduation rates that can potentially impact federal funding.

Two high school girls studying at desks in school.

The lasting impact of decreasing graduation rates

Across the country, projected declines in graduation rates will vary based on demographics and other factors. By region, the number of graduates is expected to decline

17% in the Northeast*
16% in the Midwest*
20% in the West*

States in the South could see the most variation, with Mississippi, for example, seeing a 16% decline in graduates while West Virginia is predicted to see a whopping 26% decline.*

A decrease in graduation rates can have a lasting impact on more than high school education – it can affect everything from regional workforce participation and college enrollments to future school funding.

With fewer graduates able to qualify for entry-level jobs that require, at minimum, a high school diploma or its equivalent, we could be poised for a worker shortage that can dramatically impact the economy – both locally and at a federal level. Besides filling open jobs, a decrease in high school graduates also means a further decrease in college enrollments, putting higher education at risk.

Further, many public high schools rely on federal and state funding to maintain their curriculum and programs. With a decrease in graduates, these schools may be at risk of losing important funding that can help them serve their students, which then can have further negative impact on graduation numbers.

How schools can help students stay on track for graduation

As students face more challenges than ever, it’s vital that schools and guidance counselors are prepared to provide effective, customized solutions to the learners who need support. Besides offering counseling and guidance, there are several solutions schools can use to best help their students stay on track for graduation.

Credit recovery programs – Often, students can get bogged down focusing on the negatives, such as if they’re missing credits. They may be less motivated to continue forward when they feel like they’re stuck or will be forced into summer school or unable to graduate with their class. Offering flexible options for credit recovery can be an easy win. With online credit recovery, students are able to take classes and make up credits at their own pace instead of sitting in summer school or delaying graduation. This solution can allow students to get back on track on their terms without the frustration or embarrassment of falling behind.
Online high schools – Sometimes, traditional public school just may not be working for all of your students. Whether they have family responsibilities that take up their time, health concerns that keep them out of school, or just don’t learn the same way the majority of students do, an online alternative can provide a flexible path toward graduation.
Continued support and guidance – Besides offering alternatives, it’s also important that the school and guidance counselors are able to fully support student success. That means listening to the needs of guidance counselors and students, having enough guidance staff in place to be able to serve all students, and providing resources that guidance counselors can give to learners and their parents.

The time to act is now

As students face more challenges than ever and graduation rates are poised to decline in the next decade, it’s essential that schools and guidance counselors act now to mitigate barriers and clear the path toward graduation. Penn Foster partners with school districts across the country to offer flexible solutions that can help students find success – and help schools increase graduation rates. From credit recovery to full high school completion programs, we offer a variety of options that can be tailored to best serve your students’ needs. To learn more about improving dropout rates and how Penn Foster can help, download our free ebook for proven strategies that schools and districts can implement today.

* Unglesbee, Ben. “The Coming Decline in High School Graduate Counts, in 5 Charts.” Higher Ed Dive, January 27, 2025. https://www.highereddive.com/news/decline-high-school-graduates-demographic-cliff-wiche-charts/738281/.